Is the Crisis in Ukraine a Civil War?

The crisis in Ukraine has reached a breaking point. The recent violent clashes in the Ukrainian port city of Odessa between pro-Russian separatists and the pro-Ukrainian’s, has resulted in many casualties and deaths. The clashes on Friday left more than 40 people dead, mostly pro-Russian separatists killed in a building fire after Pro-Ukrainian protesters firebombed the building as a part of the ongoing street battles.

Furthermore, over 60 people arrested over Friday’s violence in Odessa have been freed by police after protesters attacked the main police station. Several hundred pro-Russian protesters besieged the police headquarters, breaking through windows and doors. These violent clashes have been broken out all over Ukraine, and Ukrainian troops are carrying out operations in the east to wrest control of government buildings from pro-Russia separatists. After vicious battles in and around Kramatorsk, pro-Ukrainian troops reportedly recaptured the town’s television station and security services building. Elsewhere in the east, fighting also rages. There are reports of clashes near Andreevka, Kostyantynivka and the rebel base of Sloviansk. The government and the pro-Ukrainians seem finally to be taking the battle to the separatists, but can they gain the upper hand?

According to the Oxford English Dictionary a Civil War is, “War between the citizens or inhabitants of a single country, state, or community.” Based on this definition, it cannot be disputed that the crisis in Ukraine has escalated to a small civil war. Violent clashes between pro-Russian separatists (who want Ukraine to be a part of Russia) and the pro-Ukrainian’s (who want Ukrainian unity) are erupting all over the country, and only seem to be getting worse. The Ukrainian government appears to be handling the violence very poorly, with little tangible control over the situation or its people. Following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, it was originally the pro-Russian separatists who were engaging in violence, but now pro-Ukrainian supporters have also started to fight back equally destructively. In response, the Ukrainian police has been struggling to manage the situation effectively. If the Ukrainian government fails to control the situation over the next few days, the crisis in Ukraine could very well deteriorate into an all-out civil war with casualties and death on all sides.

Additionally, the threat of Russian military intervention continues to be a major possibility, particularly if the situation in Ukraine deteriorates even further. Russia is not likely to hesitate to protect its Russian speakers in Ukraine, especially if it feels they are being persecuted by the pro-Ukrainian forces and the Ukrainian government. If that turns out to be the case and Russia does invade Ukraine, Western intervention by the rest of Europe or the USA might well follow to help protect the sovereignty of Ukraine. It would effectively transform the crisis in Ukraine into a massive Cold War era-style proxy war, between the West and Russia with Ukraine in the middle.

Stabilising the situation in Ukraine will be crucial for the Ukrainian government in the immediate future. Will the violent clashes continue and plunge Ukraine into an all-out civil war? Will Russia decide to intervene militarily? The next few days will be very telling.

Should the UK Leave the EU?

The UK European elections are scheduled to take place in a few weeks on May 22^nd 2014. The Pro and Anti-EU debate has been intensifying, with both sides stepping up their political rhetoric. One of the main topics within the EU debate is whether the UK should leave the EU. UKIP is certainly a firm believer that the UK should leave the EU, they argue that the UK would be better off by leaving the EU. However this is not a proven fact. The benefits the UK gains from being a part of the EU are immense and should not be ignored. Leaving the EU would mean that the UK would have to give up a lot of political and economic benefits, and it would isolate the UK from the rest of Europe.

There are many benefits that the UK and its citizens receive from being part of the EU. For example the EU provides free trade between all EU countries, greatly increasing the volume of trade the UK can engage in without any barriers or protective tariffs. This provides huge benefits for UK businesses and the economy. Furthermore being part of the EU allows the UK access to Global free trade as well, not just European.

The EU has a massive number of global trade agreements in place, and as the world’s largest trade region, it is in a much stronger position to negotiate hard on behalf of its citizens than the UK by itself. The EU already has a number of agreements with the rising superpower India and the EU is also negotiating Free Trade Agreements with Brazil, the United States of America, Canada, and countless other countries, whilst China has made it clear that it potentially would like to enter into a deal as well.

The critics who argue that the UK does not actually gain much economic benefit from being part of the EU could not be more wrong. UK national income dependent on exports to the EU each year is worth £207bn to the UK economy every year, according to independent research from the Centre for Economic and Business Research. This figure represents 15% of British GDP.

One of the other great benefits that UK citizens get from being part of the EU is free movement within the EU. It is regarded as the EU’s founding vision, and because of the UK’s membership of the European Union, UK citizens can take holidays, travel, and work anywhere in the EU without requiring a visa.

Another great EU benefit which can be felt for UK citizens every day is The Working Time Directive which guarantees workers a minimum daily rest of 11 hours in every 24, a rest break during working hours if the worker is on duty for longer than 6 hours, a weekly rest period of 24 uninterrupted hours for each 7-day period (in addition to the 11 hours daily rest), and paid annual leave of at least 4 weeks per year. This EU law means that workers cannot be exploited by UK businesses, it allows workers more time to be with their family and to engage in leisure activities.

Finally, one other essential benefit (among many) which the EU provides for the UK is Cross-border crime prevention and investigation. The UK is subject to many crimes daily by criminals who often flee to other countries in Europe. Being part of the EU allows the UK police to coordinate and deal with criminals in other European countries efficiently. Furthermore the EU has measures in place to ensure minimum standards of policing and security across the common market. Crime crosses borders, so a cross-border effort to tackle it makes sense.

These are only a handful of important benefits which the UK and its citizens enjoy because of being part of the EU. The EU debate is an important one to have for sure, but overall the EU is organisation which the UK cannot afford to leave politically or economically. Without doubt the UK benefits a lot more from being part of the EU than it would if it left.

The EU Elections: Who Will Win?

The European elections are scheduled to take place in a few weeks on May 22^nd 2014. It comes as no surprise then that the debate on the EU has been intensifying, with passions flaring on all sides. The Nigel Farage Vs Nick Clegg televised debates on the topic of EU membership which took place a couple of weeks ago really got the debate going. The polls certainly seemed to suggest that Farage was the clear winner and that UKIP’s popularity had increased, lending ample credibility to their anti-EU agenda.

More recently Farage and UKIP have been very proactive, going as far to suggest that they may even win the European election ahead of the three main parties. A bold claim to be sure. Whether or not UKIP will be able to successfully galvanise enough support to secure the votes to back up their bold claim will have to be seen. Furthermore Clegg recently stated that he believes UKIP to be part of a longstanding tradition of Euro-scepticism and that UKIP’s surge in popularity isn’t a new phenomenon.

Nick Clegg without doubt still believes that his party might do well and that the pro-EU movement is stronger. But the polls after the TV debates definitely suggested that Clegg was the loser, and the Lib Dems have never really recovered from their failed tuition fee promise to the students. Their popularity has dropped greatly ever since the 2010 election. Could they really become the fourth party in the race? It will be a hard pill to swallow for the Lib Dems if they not only come forth in the EU elections, but if UKIP win as well. Clegg will certainly have to re-evaluate his party and his leadership if that turns out to be the case.

It certainly seems that with their recent surge in popularity, UKIP is set to do very well in the EU elections. They may very well come out on top. The anti-EU movement would be greatly strengthened with a victory in the EU elections. But as history has shown before, polls and popularity in the run up to an election don’t always equate to results on the day. It will be fascinating to see how the country votes, are the UK voters anti-EU or Pro-EU? We’ll find out soon.

Should Scotland be an Independent Country?

The Scottish referendum on Independence has understandably been a hot topic in the news of late. It is scheduled to take place on the 18^th September 2014. The question posed to the voter will be “Should Scotland be an independent country?” Only Scottish and British citizens resident in Scotland will be able to vote. This means that the 800,000 Scots who live in other parts of the UK don’t get a vote, while the 400,000 people from elsewhere in Britain who live in Scotland do. Members of the armed forces serving overseas who are registered to vote in Scotland will also be able to take part in the referendum.

The referendum will be the most politically significant vote of recent history in the UK and in the event of a yes vote, lead to a radical reshaping of the entire landscape of the UK. The Scottish government proposes that its independence day will be 24 March 2016 in the event of a yes vote. However despite the Scottish government’s pro independence rhetoric, an independent Scotland might not be such a good idea.

There are some major problems Scotland would have to deal with in the event of independence. Firstly and arguably one of the most important hurdles Scotland would have to deal with is the issue of economics. What would happen to the currency in Scotland? Would it have to use a new, different Scottish currency and give up the pound? Chancellor George Osborne certainly seems to argue that there will be no currency union with an independent Scotland. It would be a great headache for Scotland if it could no longer use the pound, and perhaps lead to some financial instability. An independent Scotland trying to establish a new currency would be a logistical nightmare for everyone in the UK, not just Scotland. How would the banks and big business respond to the dissolution of the currency union? Would they be supportive of a new Scottish currency? Big businesses certainly seem to be very hesitant of the idea of an independent Scotland, most probably because of the problems it could cause them financially and the practicality of such a big change.

Another key issue an independent Scotland would have to grapple with are the defence arrangements. What would happen to the shared armed forces vehicles and troops? What about the naval ships and air force? It would certainly be very cumbersome to rearrange or divide up the military personnel and vehicles between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK. Furthermore determining what military assets would actually belong to an independent Scotland could prove to be a problem as well.

What would happen to Trident? Trident is based in Scotland at the moment and whilst the Scottish government is saying an independent Scotland wants no nuclear weapons, in the future this might not be the case. Who would get control of the nuclear weapons, if in the unlikely event Scotland starts pushing for keeping some? And if Scotland really doesn’t want the nuclear weapons, relinquishing control of the Trident submarines or moving the base could be a big problem in and of itself. The loss of jobs resulting from the closure of the Clyde naval base which currently hosts Trident in Scotland could be profound as well.

Another major issue an independent Scotland would have to deal with is its membership of supranational organisations, in particular the EU and NATO. At the moment Scotland is part of the UK, and therefore it is part of the EU and NATO. However if Scotland becomes an independent country, its membership of these organisations would be thrown into flux. An independent Scotland would arguably be no longer a member of the EU or NATO. It would either have to reapply or cut some deals during negotiations to be part of the organisations again. And who’s to say whether the negotiations would be swift or easy?

An Independent Scotland sounds good on paper, but in reality it would have many political and economic hurdles to contend with. The transition from being part of the UK to an independent Scotland in the event of a yes vote could prove to be too much of a herculean task for the Scottish government. Scottish voters will have to think long and hard about all the implications of independence. Ultimately, Scotland staying in the UK might be more practical in the long term and certainly in the short term.